Editor’s note: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the writer and do not reflect Shoryuken as a whole.
Community Effort Orlando has come and gone, and directly following the event’s Street Fighter V competition, we were treated to something we were all both hoping for (and expecting) when we heard of an incoming announcement. We have now not only seen Balrog’s official Street Fighter V trailer, but we also know he will be joining the cast at the same time as Ibuki on July 1st.
I can’t speak for everyone, but when that trailer rolled, I was most definitely throwing my wallet at my laptop for Capcom to take money that I don’t necessarily need to pay since I have enough Fight Money in-game to pay for him anyway. As someone who held Balrog as a sometimes main, sometimes secondary in Street Fighter IV, he has been the DLC character I have most anticipated since he was announced, and his trailer didn’t disappoint.
Directly following the trailer, Joey “Mr. Wizard” Cuellar announced on Twitter that both Balrog and Ibuki would be tournament legal at Evo, which is set to begin on July 15–exactly two weeks after the characters join the cast. Evo isn’t the only event to make such an announcement, as Nagata Lock II has also announced that both will be tournament legal at Fight for the 6ix, a Red Bull Proving Grounds event on July 9th in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
And while the euphoria of the announcement of the characters has put us into overdrive, eventually the honeymoon period will end, and we will start asking the obvious question that’s going to be on everyone’s tongues in the upcoming weeks: What effect will this ruling have on the results of Evo?
It was certainly unexpected for the Evo staff to allow a newly-released character, let alone two, to be included in the tournament. Just last year, Evolution did not allow Ryu, Roy, and Lucas to be played in Super Smash Brothers for Wii U, with Evolution starting July 17th, and with the characters being released by Nintendo on June 14th. This is a much larger gap of time when compared to Balrog and Ibuki this time around. While the Smash characters were mainly banned due to licensing issues with Nintendo at the time, there was of course fear from some in the Smash community surrounding their use at an event as large as Evo so soon after they dropped.
With new DLC characters, there are often worries that they will completely alter the metagame that has developed and affect the results of tournaments shortly after their release. This worry has been so widespread that Mr. Wizard previously had a ruling that stated that Ibuki would be allowed at the tournament only if she was released a month before the event. After some time passed, Cuellar decided to ask fans and players to choose whether or not to allow Ibuki to participate in the tournament, should she be released late. With overwhelming support from the community, he chose to make her legal for play, and by extension, Balrog, as he is included in the same title update.
Thus, we are left with the metagame concern. With learning matchups proving a cumbersome task at times, it’s scary to think that two relatively unknown characters could allow random players to steal matches from players who should know better, and possibly take everyone’s fight money. But let’s reason out why this isn’t likely to happen.
1. Balrog and Ibuki will be far too fresh to be viable at Evolution
That’s right, I’m saying it. Simply put, we will not have enough time in the lab to figure out all the intricacies that could make these two characters powerful. While Balrog has always been more straightforward to play, and may take less time to master, Ibuki certainly suffers from intricate inputs and design mechanics. Some people may have some working knowledge of the characters, and may want to test their mettle with them at Evolution, but that will not change the fact that they have far less time to work with them than they have had with other characters. Thus players who find themselves playing against a Balrog or an Ibuki may actually be wise to feel more confident than scared, since their opponent will only be playing 14 day-old characters with 14 day-old tech against their characters with 150 day-old tech at most, and 78 day-old tech at least. The numbers game will likely prove insurmountable for early adopters of the two new characters.
2. The top pros are likely to play it safe
Yes folks, please put your dreams of seeing Sako and PR Balrog in Evolution grand finals rocking their trademark characters into your side pocket for 2017. That is not likely to happen. With the large field and large prize pool this time around, top players, especially sponsored ones, are likely not to risk their entire tournament on a brand new character that they have yet to test in any serious event. With the fight to reach the pinnacle at Evolution in Street Fighter V to be littered with 4000 bodies this year, not a single pro will want to take that battle to losers bracket early. By throwing caution to the side and playing a shiny new character, they are giving themselves ample opportunity to do just that. With a marathon awaiting those who find themselves in losers early, anyone who winds up there will likely be exhausted by the time they even hit top 128, let alone top 8. While you may be able to watch them play the characters in casuals and at salty suites, I would not be looking for them on the main stage.
3. Saving it for Nationals doesn’t work anymore
If you’ve ever read Seth Killian’s Domination 101 articles, you are surely familiar with STSFN (Save That Stuff For Nationals). One of the most notable efforts of this was Alex Valle in Street Fighter Alpha 2, back in 1996, when some players nowadays were not even conceived (I promise, I won’t tell you to get off of my lawn yet.) Valle had discovered a glitch, which was later coined as the Valle CC, where he could activate a Custom Combo and make it unblockable. This was almost a completely foolproof route to glory. He, however, had one miscalculation: John Choi. Over the course of grand finals, Choi managed to figure out the glitch, and how to counter it, leading to his own victory.
This was in an age before the Internet had really taken off, and YouTube didn’t exist; this was in an age before broadband online matches and Twitch streams. Even without these wellsprings of information, having hidden tech didn’t guarantee Valle the championship. Nowadays, hiding tech is almost impossible, with multiple people collaborating on all corners of the Earth, and everyone sharing things nearly instantly. The likelihood of someone developing Balrog or Ibuki tech under the radar to debut at Evolution is close to nil. Whatever they have discovered is likely to already have been discovered, posted, and scrutinized for proper counters. Even if that were the case…
4. The top players are not likely to fall for new tech
While people will likely counter with Kusoru’s performance in Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 using Rocket Raccoon/Viewtiful Joe/Frank West, it is highly unlikely such a thing will happen in a 1 vs. 1 fighter. I hearken back to the Valle CC example. What seemed like a nearly broken tech in the hands of Valle was ultimately defeated by Choi. Top players have the mental acumen and comprehensive intelligence to overcome newly discovered obstacles. As argued in point number 2, the players who will likely be playing Balrog or Ibuki will be lesser known, lesser caliber players who are not expected to place highly in the event to begin with. Even if they shock a pro with their play, said pro is likely to adapt very quickly to what they are seeing, and counter it.
And with that, while there can never be any certainties in life, I truly believe that we will not be seeing any Balrogs or Ibukis cracking top 8 this year. How their tech develops over the course of a year could dictate how they fare in 2017, but I certainly don’t expect them to turn any heads so soon after their release. I, however, welcome anyone with the fortitude to play them at Evo to try to surprise me, and would gladly owe said person a beverage should they do so.
