Author: Corey "Missing Person" Lanier

NuckleDu has had a crazy year. After opting out of defending his title at Capcom Cup last year, the 2016 champion then parted ways with Team Liquid, setting out on his own for a period.

With a new sponsor and armed with some amazing tricks, Ghost|NuckleDu once again finds himself in the driver’s seat of a possible deep run at Capcom Cup. The question then becomes how far that drive will go.

Character Strength

Let’s face it, Du’s ability to switch characters is unrivaled at this juncture in the Street Fighter V meta. He ended 2016 with two very strong characters in Guile and R. Mika — which were ultimately the two characters he stuck it out with the majority of the time on the Capcom Pro Tour in 2017. His ability to change characters based primarily on his opponents rather than their characters, and make it work, is hard to compare to anyone.

But to assume that this is where that aspect of his game ends would be a disservice to him. The early points of the season saw him pick up a pocket Cammy to complement his two mains — which he has pulled out at several points to success. But to further matters, to counter Menat — a character which has very few bad matchups — he whipped out a surprise G on Justin Wong at Red Bull Conquest. The character — with a projectile that can’t be reflected as effectively, and ranges that can actually outpoke her — proved to put Justin off-kilter for two straight games, before Du had to switch back to R. Mika to finish the job.

While it would’ve been more impressive if he had finished the job with G, the fact that he was able to do all of this with a seemingly tertiary character, then have the wherewithal to switch off to finish the job is remarkable. Few people have that kind of inner dialogue where they can reason out when it’s time to switch — with many either knee-jerking to a character off a wrong belief that they can’t clutch it out with the character they first picked, and many others talking themselves out of switching either out of pride, or fear that they’re wrong. NuckleDu has it, and he does very well in choosing right more often than not.

Tournament Success

NuckleDu was easily one of the most consistent players on the tour. Only four of his seventeen tournaments resulted in him finishing outside of top 8, and this was across two continents. This also includes a top 8 at Tokyo Game Show, which is always a tough tournament bracket to crack — and he not only achieved this, but made it through to the top half of the finals. But to factor this in, he won three ranking events, all of which featuring several solid players that have made it in to Capcom Cup already.

The Inconsistency

Here’s my struggle with NuckleDu: he’s not beating a lot of players consistently. He’s traded back and forth with Justin Wong over the span of the last year. While he was able to take MenaRD at Defend the North, he lost in the longer set at Texas Showdown.

It could always be that Du is trying to figure things out. But the thing is, every time he figures something out, he gives players that he beats the data to figure out for the next time. It’s a constant ping-pong between winning and losing, as Du should always be analyzing even his wins to find more efficient ways to grab them, just to always be a step ahead of his opponents. He may be, but coming to the wrong conclusions in that case.

Final Thoughts

NuckleDu has the right mix of characters and talent to make a deep run. And it would be a bad decision to ever put him outside of top 8 at this point. He is definitely one of the best players in the entire circuit.

But he’s been struggling to find the same magic he did in 2016. He was unable to capitalize this year and take a Premier title, and hasn’t since all the way back in May 2017 at Combo Breaker. This doesn’t make me doubt his talent — he has that in spades. But it could be that he’s just struggling to recapture the spark he had in 2016 and 2017.

I believe he’s going to get there, and for all we know, he’ll save it for Vegas. But based off of the season itself, it could be a bumpy road to get there.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is the third time the charm for Problem X?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: How Sako made me eat my words in two tournament wins
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Fujimura take the title in his third shot at the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is Fuudo more poised this year than last?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Justin Wong finally make top 8?

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Justin Wong has been known to be “accursed” at Capcom Cup. Prior to 2017, he went 0-2 in every Street Fighter V tournament at the event. It was almost as though Justin was unable to perform with the immense amount of pressure an invitational event provided. Last year changed all of that, as he managed to improve on his meager results at Capcom Cup. Taking a set over Haitani, he was able to improve his record to 1-2. Now, with the winless monkey off of his back, can Justin go further in the bracket this time?

Turtle Power

This year, Echo Fox|Justin Wong has corrected his biggest mistake. Once known to be one of the most passive players on the circuit, his turtle style had always frustrated his opponents into submission. As of Street Fighter IV, Justin made a dramatic shift in his play style, becoming highly-aggressive with his Rufus play.

This transferred over — to his detriment — in Street Fighter V with Karin. Being unable to play her in a passive style, he had to continue a rushdown style of play that didn’t fully suit him. It often appeared that Justin would be perplexed on how to deal with scenarios just simply based on being consistently outside of his comfort zone.

That began to change as of March, when Canada East Championships first saw him using Menat full-time. Finding that she had all the options to play a passive, spacing-based game, Justin’s stock rose. This character has fit him in a way that we haven’t seen in a long time.

With only a handful of exceptions — once at Toryuken, and another time at DreamHack Montréal — Justin has rarely strayed from his newfound main. But when he has — picking Falke against Problem X, or picking Karin against NuckleDu — he has had calculated reasons for doing so that ultimately worked out.

Wong Is Factoring Out

And this shift in his playstyle has led to him having his best season on the circuit ever. Where Justin had so often failed this year, he was able to find success.

While he had been able to take Ranking events last season — and continued to do so this year, winning Toryuken for the second year straight, as well as winning DreamHack Austin — he had failed to take down Premier after Premier event over the course of Street Fighter V. This changed this year in a twist of near déjà vu.

At DreamHack Montréal — now a Premier event — Justin found himself once again up against NuckleDu, in an epic battle of character picks and counter picks. As opposed to last year, he came out on top, clinching his first Premier event of his circuit life. With 99% of his play stemming from his immaculate zoning game with Menat, it shows how far the character can take him. And, in the unlikely event it doesn’t pan out, he can switch off to his more-aggressive Karin should he need to go that route. The two polar play styles that he is now capable of makes him an extra threat, compared to the one gear that we typically expect of him.

After Montréal

But the problem I feel for Justin is how he’s been able to follow up his performance, in Montréal. While we were proven emphatically last year that the run-up to Capcom Cup is not the penultimate indicator of success at the big dance — Dogura won Canada Cup last year, and yet was unable to crack top 16 — it shows where your strengths and deficiencies lie. And there’s been some cracks in his defensive walls.

At Canada Cup, he had one of his closest sets ever against Xiaohai to put him into Losers Bracket. While as of the time of writing Capcom Fighters has yet to upload the matches, several crucial rounds came down to the clock, with Xiaohai losing simply by misjudging the lifebar by a pixel and losing. The runback on Losers side, however, proved to be far more convincing, as Xiaohai just dominated Justin.

Similar happened at North American Regional Finals, where NuckleDu — having cut it close at DreamHack Montréal against him, brought out a brand new character in G to take two quick games off of Justin’s Menat. This shows that when players know how to counter his defense with the right aggression, Justin still falters.

This led Justin, at least in the case of NuckleDu, to play far more aggressive. While it worked in the short term, this only sent Du back to the counterpick game, once again edging him out. So while Justin has been working on his approach to the character, this linear style of play per character is actually a detriment.

The reasons why Sako and Infiltration have done so well with Menat is that they have two gears to their play. They can play aggressive, then hang back and frustrate you in trying to approach them. Justin only tries to frustrate you in your approach. When you have figured out an approach, you’re sitting pretty. This means the biggest thing Justin has to work on is finding new approaches to his character.

Final Thoughts

Justin may be on a tear this year, but he’s still going into a lion’s den facing players who have faced him before. If they’ve already figured out how to deal with his style of play, it’s going to be hard for him to surprise them unless he finds a gear he hasn’t had before with Menat. Even trying to go off of Karin to achieve this will only telegraph the style of play he wants to achieve out of the gate.

Barring this, Justin is going to be facing an uphill battle at Capcom Cup. Yes, he may be on the somewhat weaker end of the bracket with Verloren, and will likely see himself improve on his 1-2 record this year. To take it all will take a crazy amount of preparation before he plays everyone in his Vegas backyard.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is the third time the charm for Problem X?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: How Sako made me eat my words in two tournament wins
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Fujimura take the title in his third shot at the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is Fuudo more poised this year than last?

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Last year, Fuudo was known to be the highest-rank player to not win a major on the Capcom Pro Tour. In my analysis of his second appearance in Capcom Cup, I stated that the odds of him winning the event “looks grim.”

Unsurprisingly, Fuudo bowed out of the tournament just within the top 16. It was just a matter of being clutch, and from the beginning of Street Fighter V to Capcom Cup 2017, Fuudo had exhibited a lack of clutch factor. In fact, up until this year, he had won no events outside of locals in the game.

But this year saw him finally etch a notch onto his belt, winning Esports Festival Hong Kong and helping to catapult him into a safe fourth seed in Capcom Cup 2018. With that win, has anything changed going into December?

Same Old Fuudo

One thing hasn’t changed much — Fuudo still remains the shining example of optimal R. Mika play on the circuit. Few would even try to refute this. His setups are still as nasty as they’ve been since the dawn of the game.

I feel like he’s still re-writing the book on how to play the character. Not only is his spacing game immaculate now, but he has been re-inventing what we thought we know about her V-Triggers. Just seeing his crazy setup on Dogura at Canada Cup using V-Trigger II shows how much work Fuudo is still putting into his character.

Further, any fear that the character may hold him back in some matches has been quelled by his usage of Birdie, a character he unleashed to help propel him to his win in Hong Kong. Typically maining two grapplers wouldn’t quite work, but Fuudo has been able to use his utility Birdie in a different way with different ranges than he would his Mika. While it does leave Luffy as the only Mika left in Capcom Cup as a “pure” Mika main, what it does give Fuudo is extra options with which to slay opponents.

Brand New Trophy

With his Esports Festival Hong Kong win, he has finally gotten the proverbial monkey off of his back. Having failed to capture any title on the Capcom Pro Tour for two years, this was an important statement for him to make. Yes, he could still win. Yes, he could do it at the Premier level, in a bracket where not a single soul in the top 8 finished outside of Capcom Cup.

But not only did he take a title on the circuit this year, but he also stayed very consistent within top 8s over the season; when making top 8, Fuudo never finished in the bottom half of the top 8 results. Everything was fourth or above in this area. Compared to last year, and you can see a far more resilient Fuudo than in the years since his win at Evo 2011. This alone is a tough feat to mount.

Who Can He Lose To?

So, let’s play the hypothetical now. CYG BST|Fuudo could easily make top 8 off of his consistency this year. Now who stands in way when he gets there, and further, is he capable of beating them?

The first major threat he might see in top 8 — should they both qualify on Winners side — would be none other than Tokido. This is a person he put into Losers bracket at Evo 2018, only to be beaten in the runback in Losers Finals. If memory serves me correctly, Tokido has the winning record against Fuudo overall in Street Fighter V, with Evo being one blip on the radar evidencing that Fuudo can best him, but is it by a wide enough margin?

Should he get past him, there’s still Problem X, NL, and even Daigo waiting in the wings as high echelon players he could see in Winners Finals. Problem X is the reason Tokido got his runback in Losers Finals at Evo, and Daigo could always be a thorn in his side — and also being one person he has yet to face on the tour. He also has been going back and forth with NL, but with NL having a slight edge on Fuudo statistically, his top 8 could be a crapshoot.

Taking away the hypothetical, he would still have to fight his way through Xiaohai to even get within spitting range of top 8. While Fuudo may have had an edge against him early on, the nudges from NuckleDu last year has seen a more confident Xiaohai against his main. So while Fuudo himself is capable, the bracket may have a few things to say to the contrary.

Final Thoughts

I seriously think this is Fuudo’s most prime year to make a run at the title. One of the biggest hindrances will be Cammy — just in his second match alone, should he beat MenaRD, he will either have to fight Xiaohai or CJ Truth. Both of them have R. Mika experience, and both of them cut their teeth on the character by facing the ever-grimy NuckleDu.

This match-up has been his Achilles’ Heel the entire season. If he doesn’t find an answer soon, I would expect his road through top 8 to be via the Losers Bracket. He would still be a threat, but it would be hard to be as big of a threat if it ends up this way.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is the third time the charm for Problem X?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: How Sako made me eat my words in two tournament wins
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Fujimura take the title in his third shot at the cup?

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Fujimura has been tough to stop this year. The artist formerly known as Yukadon picked up where he looked to be leaving off last year, slaying killer after killer to get one of the top seeds in the Capcom Cup bracket. He has been the odds-on favorite for many people at every event he’s been to in 2018. With December fast approaching, is he still that way?

Consistency

It should be no secret that Fujimura is one of the best in the game right now. One only has to look at his not-so-paltry record of reaching top 8 of two out of three Evos for Street Fighter V and top 8 of the only two SFV Capcom Cups to know that he has easily been one of the most consistent players over the entirety of its lifespan. This is also factoring in that he has made the decision to change characters twice over the course of his public career in fighting games. While starting with Nash at the beginning of its lifespan, he switch to Ibuki last year and has become one of the pioneers of how to use the character, showing exactly how absurd her setups could actually be.

Even with such an explosive mix-up heavy character who can live and die by whether people fall for her tricks, he has managed to rack up quite an onslaught of tournament accolades. Having accrued ten top 8s this season — with only a fifth of those being at a ranking event — he managed to take home three titles.

One of the most notable of those wins came at CEO, which was really the first time people saw Fujimura fully tested at the hands of Xiaohai. Having lost in Winners Finals, Fujimura managed to bring it back convincingly, with a 6-1 record across the two sets; the one win from Xiaohai coming before the reset.

It was clear at this point that Fujimura was able to fight with his back to the wall, and not only figure out what he lacked in his defeat, but execute his adjustments so perfectly that it would serve to frustrate people to the point where there was no contest against him. Over a tournament season, these are the types of points you want to make about your play. If this were not over the course of a circuit, a statement like this would almost be benign to make, but when you have to use every tool at your disposal to make players concerned about you, it is a great one to make.

The Edge

Going into Evo 2018, Fujimura was already virtually a lock on making it into Capcom Cup off his early successes. By Evo 2018, he was already a favorite of many to win, and it came of no surprise that he made it into top 8. But that was the beginning of the doubts on how far he could take his success, as he finished fifth. While that alone is respectable, it is far less than people — even possibly Fujimura — anticipated.

It wasn’t the end of the season though, and given the propensity to call Evo the halfway mark of the CPT season, we saw far less stellar results from Fujimura than we were used to. His three tournament wins happened before the halfway mark, and only four of his top 8s occurred after Evo. Out of his top 8s, his highest finish was second in an online ranking event.

It’s always possible he’s been taking it easy since Evo solidified his slot at Capcom Cup. But given his continued grind throughout the season, I feel like that’s less the case. Which makes for another problem. At this point, the people he was confounding are starting to catch on. He managed to defeat Xiaohai at both CEO and Evo, but come Canada Cup, Xiaohai was more than prepared to deal with Fujimura. The same with Fuudo, who struggled to find answers in Xi’an China earlier in the year, but had them in spades at Canada Cup to eliminate him.

Final Thoughts

That’s not to mention players that he has also struggled against, including Problem X who has been consistent against him, whom he may have to face in the much later stages of the bracket. Fujimura will likely have little trouble finding his way to top 8 once more, but the complexion of that top 8 will ultimately determine his fate.

He has all the tricks in the book to dispatch anyone at the lower echelons of play in Capcom Cup. But the problem is the people who have been reading that book cover to cover for the entire system. They’re more likely to decipher the problems he’s put on the table, and unless there’s a major revision coming up to said book, he’s likely to have to wait another year to clinch the title.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is the third time the charm for Problem X?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: How Sako made me eat my words in two tournament wins

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