Author: Corey "Missing Person" Lanier

If there was ever any time that I felt absolutely wrong in my two years of writing these analysis articles, my thoughts on Naoto Sako would be that instance. While I was correct in my belief that he wouldn’t win Capcom Cup last year, my reasoning was way off kilter. Having said that his age was beginning to play a factor, and even mentioning him as just happy to make the cut for the event — I was completely silenced this year by his play.

Now, with his amazing #5 seed at Capcom Cup, I’m forced to highly re-evaluate my views on the execution god himself. Will the elder statesman of Capcom Cup be the victor this year?

Age Is Just a Number

Last year I viewed his lack of major wins as a sign that age was catching up to him. I was dead wrong. While I may not have been far off in that he was not as focused last year as this year, he has proven unequivocally that his age has not become a detriment to his play.

This year saw him play to a tournament victory in Taiwan at TWFighter Major. He not only did this at the age of 39 years old — which many in esports, and even the FGC, have claimed to be too far past your prime to compete — but he did so without dropping a single game. Forget dropping sets and going into Losers Bracket, Sako hunted for goose eggs in every single set and got them…

Few people can accomplish this feat in their 20s, let alone approaching their 40s. Sako proved that when he is truly focused on his craft, he’s every bit as dangerous as these young upstarts who have begun to sweep through tournaments taking prize after prize. He has single-handedly shown that much like in traditional sports — where the best quarterbacks in football, or the best skaters in hockey can play nearing the 40s and still contribute to wins — age doesn’t matter as much as your talent and drive.

The Past is the Future

And the truth is, while much has been said of Street Fighter V’s lowered execution barrier, Sako has found a character that requires the highest amount of execution and has begun to do what he does best. While we can say that the lowered executional requirements in the game has given us a dearth of Sako-trademarked combos that are highly impractical for most people outside of himself to do, he has still managed to show his execution prowess in his play whenever possible.

Not only that, but his situational awareness of which combos are most optimal in any given circumstance is unparalleled. It’s magical just watching his mind work on any hit confirm to find the most optimized route that will lead to the most damage he can dole out. And given his great spacial awareness, using a character such as Menat with great range on any normal she throws just seems to work hand-in-hand with his play style.

So while yes, odds are we’ll never see Sako unleash an insane combo nobody has seen (or that nobody else can do) he has made up for it in his precision of converting combos.

Repeated Success

For anyone thinking that TWFighter was a fluke, few scoffers could be left at this point. Following up in a very short time with a top 8 finish at Esports Festival Hong Kong should’ve quelled any doubters. But if there were still detractors to the man’s abilities, he shut them up at SoCal Regionals, dispatching of everyone in his way, including a Xiaohai who was hot off of a top 8 appearance at DreamHack Montréal.

We would be remiss to mention a runner-up at Thaiger Uppercut, an online ranking win, and four more top 8s beyond this to add to the reasons why anyone not worried about Sako right now is a fool.

Unfamiliarity

I feel like right now, Sako’s biggest weakness is akin to Tokido’s: less popular characters in Asia tend to give him trouble. At Canada Cup, Sako fell to Canadian Sin and his M. Bison. Earlier than that, he lost his very first game at Tokyo Game Show to ROF’s Birdie, another player and character that Tokido nearly fell to at SEAM.

This seems to be a dramatic parallel between top Japanese players in that they have the tendency to sleep on the lesser known — only to be awoken too late, or just barely in time to save themselves.

But whereas Tokido will have to be prepared for that in the very first round, Sako may have a few rounds before a potential showdown against the reigning champion MenaRD and his Birdie, provided both remain in Winners Bracket for that long. So while he has more traditional opponents to worry about immediately, it could eventually come down to him stepping out of his comfort zone to face what he struggles with.

Final Thoughts

This could truly be Sako’s year. He could have the bracket fall perfectly, and he is peaking in Street Fighter V at just the right time to make it happen. Any critics — myself included — have eaten their words. He’s not washed up, and he will make people sweat if need be.

The problem could be if he gets thrown into Losers Bracket and has to sweat, or if the Winners Bracket doesn’t fall his way on the other matches surrounding him. Any upsets could destabilize his odds. But all told, this could be the year that the old guard sends the new kids to school.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Is the third time the charm for Problem X?

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In prior years, Problem X has always been on the cusp of greatness without actualizing it. This year saw the actualization of what we’ve surmised for years: Problem X really stands true to his name, and is now the man to beat coming into Capcom Cup.

After struggling to etch his name on major after major, he went on a tear in 2018, and took the title at Evo 2018 to prove himself as one of the best in the game. Will he follow up his biggest success with an even bigger one at Capcom Cup?

The Character Problem

One of the things that has always seemed to hold back Problem X in the past has always been his choice of characters. In 2016, his pick of Alex held him back, with the character impeding his progress in the bracket. 2017 saw him make more tournament-conscious decisions in the characters he played, but he was still having more knee-jerks between Bison and Birdie that didn’t work in his favor.

This year has saw him much more stable, not only in characters picked overall, but match-up by match-up. His strong M. Bison play from last year only improved in 2018. Dropping Birdie has also been a step in the right direction for him, as the character was not much of a complement of his true main. And with his Abigail, he has proven that these two characters have — more often than not — been the right mixture of styles to put him through some of the toughest brackets.

Further, we have seen less bad picks from him in tournament than ever before. Even through Evo, he used Abigail for the most part until he made top 8 until switching to Bison — a head-turning decision that he had seemingly calculated to throw off players who may have instead prepared for the Abigail pick. He has hardly had a misstep in this aspect over the course of the season, thus assuring the public that his decision-making skills have improved dramatically.

The Experiential Problem

One of the other things that I addressed last year was that his tournament experience — as well as his best finishes — primarily hinged on European tournaments, which I’ve argued could be a historically weaker region to compete in. Mousesports|Problem X might have been listening, as 2018 saw him travel more than ever before.

Not only did he travel, he was close to grabbing a medal at every locale he invaded. From Toronto, to Washington, to Texas, to Montréal, to Vegas, he has made a mass amount of top 8s that weren’t just within his home region. This meant playing players he had less of an opportunity to play against, thus forcing himself outside of his comfort zone in order to really dig to find answers on the fly, instead of merely relying on experience against opponents he would have played time and again in Europe.

I feel like playing against talent outside of the same guys you face in every tournament you’ve already been to cannot be underestimated as a training tool. Not everyone has the same tendencies, and being able to react to new players using new tactics can be equated to sinking or swimming when you have to learn from it. Problem X found himself swimming, and I feel like he has only become more dangerous of a player for it.

The Few Remaining Problems

The one thing I worry about is that Problem X had to expose everything he had in the take at Evo to take the victory. Let’s face it, regardless of how well Problem X did, and how much he deserved his title at the end of the day, he had to face some of the most cerebral players in the game in Tokido and Fuudo on his way to the title. And in Grand Finals, it wasn’t necessarily the runaway set that you’d hope for in showing yourself to be the most dominant player.

Tokido gave him one hell of a match for the entirety of the set, even after a nail-biting reset. And Tokido always seems to come back stronger from any loss he’s handed. Problem X could run into him, so what if Tokido is ready? What if anyone who’s had the misfortune of coming up against him this year has done their homework?

Further, what about players like Justin Wong, NuckleDu or Fujimura that he has struggled with over the season? Just like everyone else in the tournament, he’ll have to do his own fair share of studying to prepare himself for his biggest demons, while also trying to stay one step ahead of the people who view him as their demon.

Final Thoughts

There isn’t any reason Problem X cannot win this tournament. He has a great blend of characters, the ability to counter-pick players over match-ups, and has been on the grind to put himself in a great position to win.

But I feel like he’s going to have to play far more above the rim than he already has. Bison is one of those lesser-played characters in top 8. Given his stature, players will be taking the extra time to study his play in order to prepare. Further, Abigail has been a known problem for a while, with players dissecting the character to find ways to make him less so.

For his sake, I hope he has been saving up some tech beyond what we’ve seen out of him in order to catch players off guard.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?
• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will MenaRD claim the throne once again?

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MenaRD shocked the world last year when he took Street Fighter’s top honor in winning Capcom Cup. Not only did he mow through the majority of the bracket uncontested, but he bounced back from losing in Winners Finals to defeat Tokido in a pair of sets that showed MenaRD had the composure to hang with the best in the world.

Unfortunately, soon after his win, questions were raised in some areas of the gaming media, calling into question the “legitimacy” of his win and frustrating the young pro who had just propelled himself into the public spotlight. He has spent this year trying to prove that he is indeed a legitimate contender. Now with Capcom Cup looming, he has the chance to prove himself once and for all — will he rise to the occasion?

Legitimacy

Let’s just start right with the question that has seemingly loomed over his head for the course of a year. Make no mistake that MenaRD’s win was indeed legitimate. Forget trying to blame his character on the downfall of so many victims on his path to glory. After losing to Tokido in a very narrow 3-2 Winners Finals, he managed to change it up just enough to beat him 3-2 in the first set, then dispatch him even more quickly with a 3-1 to take the title. That does not speak to me of someone who won on a fluke, but of someone who not only began reading his opponent, but also made proper adjustments to put a master back on his heels.

Nor did Tokido ever discredit the win of the young Dominican; he rather respected his effort and congratulated Mena himself.

The Weight of the World

But regardless of how truly earned his win was, I feel like MenaRD set out on a warpath this year; if people wouldn’t respect his win, he was going to make them respect it by silencing all of his detractors. Typically, this type of mindset succeeds in doing the opposite, and when you see the losses he sustained over the year, starting with falling short of top 8 at Evo Japan, you can tell it took its toll.

It’s a very hard road when you want to gain respect, and can’t seem to get it. In his wins, he was able to show the brilliance he put on display last December. In his losses, he just looked dejected. And that’s the key is his demeanor right now: it doesn’t exude confidence. When you’re looking to repeat in the toughest bracket in the world, this is a key ingredient to do so. Without this, he could easily be stuck.

Wins

But let’s look at the way he plays when he is confident. His play at Fighting Fest was nothing short of spectacular, in a tournament that featured 2 players (Crossover and Caba) who will be joining their countrymate at Capcom Cup. In Texas Showdown, he played a solid set against NuckleDu for the title, in a top 8 that featured Problem X and Chris Tatarian as well. With all of these being potential match-ups he’ll have to face at Capcom Cup, this shows that when he’s on, he is still capable of taking on the highest echelon of players.

Marked Man

But to further complicate matters for MenaRD, the people that do respect his play and performance are his peers. The peers that respect him the most are the ones who will be with him in Vegas. Don’t think for a second that they will be sleeping on him. If anyone did last year, it was a fatal mistake that will not be made again.

You can rest assured that anyone who believes they can see him in a bracket will be studying the tapes to figure out what to do against him. What even makes the problem worse is that there was far less footage of him last year than this year. Anything that he has put on the table at any event will now be easily dissected by the public.

What remains to be seen is if he has hidden anything away for Capcom Cup. This could almost be imperative for victory. If all he has is all that we’ve seen, this could be a rough exit for the reigning champ.

Final Thoughts

This isn’t even going over bad match-ups, of which there is a few. Oil King and Gachikun have reprised their roles as potential bracket spoilers for MenaRD, as Rashid still remains a tough match-up for Birdie. One of the Rashids (Moke) has dropped off the radar since Dragon Ball FighterZ released, which makes the odds of facing one slightly less. However, multiple Guiles, Ibukis, and Menats can also cause him problems.

Ultimately, aside from either dancing around bad match-ups or facing them and overcoming them, the biggest issue is his confidence level. I feel like his confidence level is almost tied directly to feeling like he has something to prove. This was something Xian found out all to well when we won with a low tier at Evo 2013, and something MenaRD has had to also learn.

The biggest key for MenaRD right now is to realize that the only thing he has to prove is the same thing everyone else in the bracket has to prove: that they’re the best in 2018. He won in 2017, and no one can take that away from him. There’s zero asterisks that can be placed on that. Now he just has to evacuate the feelings of proving that win to anyone, take a deep breath, and approach every match-up one at a time.

This was the exact same thing he did last year, and he won emphatically. It’s tough to always capturing that magic at the right time, and 31 other people may fall short of doing this perfectly. But if he is that one that does, then I wish everyone else the best of luck as they try to overcome his onslaught.

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CAPCOM CUP 2018 ANALYSIS SERIES

• Capcom Cup 2018 Analysis: Will Tokido finally hoist the cup?

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In the entirety of Street Fighter V’s lifespan at Capcom Cup, only one player has always been labeled as massive threat: Tokido has dominated the circuit for three straight years, always putting himself up there as one of the top seeds. In 2016, he found himself seeded second, playing a less-than-optimal character for him in Ryu. He routinely found himself in top 8 at every event he went to, only to find himself eliminated in two quick games — against DR Ray and Eita.

In 2017, now with his trademark Akuma, Tokido reprised his role as the #2 seed, and dominated the field. It was still ultimately not enough, with MenaRD coming out on top in Grand Finals.

The only thing that changed this year was that Echo Fox|Tokido has only gotten better. Now firmly holding to the top seed in Capcom Cup, will he be able to overcome everything to finally clinch a Capcom Cup title?

Marked Man

There is no way that people can sleep on Tokido anymore. While it was easy to dismiss him in the era of playing multiple titles as less likely to win any one title, his shift in focus to a singular title has made him the man to beat any time he comes to an event.

And people have seen this and said to themselves, “Challenge accepted.” Being the undisputed best always comes at a cost, and that cost is that you have painted a target onto your back, begging people to best you. Having that large of a target is quite the measure of a player, as it tests your mettle more than anyone else on the circuit. If players felt like they could make Tokido buckle under this pressure, few have come close; it seems as though this type of target on his back has only managed to strengthen Tokido, not only in his resolve, but his abilities.

While last year saw him exhausting a database full of Akuma tech, we haven’t seen as much originality from him recently. Rather, what we have seen is a near perfection of everything already at his disposal. This is not just about his gameplay — we have seen his mental fortitude strengthened more in this year than last year. We may be looking at the most complete player on the circuit that has ever existed, and it’s an amazing sight to behold.

The Murderface World Tour

Tokido is definitely the most well-traveled player this year. Having been across multiple continents this year, he basically replicated Punk’s amazing run in 2017. He captured three premier titles (Canada Cup, NorCal Regionals, and Tokyo Game Show) and two ranking events (Thaiger Uppercut and Battle Arena Melbourne). He also just happened to be runner-up at Evo 2018, in one of the most staggering runs to attempt to retain his title.

While Punk started to show signs of faltering after his Evo runner-up placement, Tokido was well prepared to deal with the loss, with two of those three Premier titles coming after losing at Evo. If we were looking for how he could deal with failure, he answered us with an exclamation point.

Preparedness

Tokido always seems well-poised for whatever comes up in the bracket. He has done a solid job of dispatching players left and right, and seems to only get better the further he goes in the bracket.

However, Canada Cup showed that the world is catching up to him. As evidenced in Grand Finals, Xiaohai managed to make it close — resetting the bracket then losing 3-2 in the final round of the reset. Tokido was not as efficient as he always seems to be, meaning that people could possibly be picking up on exactly how to beat him.

But that’s not the only issue on the table regarding his preparedness. Remember his demise against MenaRD in Capcom Cup last year? SEAM saw him nearly lose to Australian ROF’s Birdie in pools; a mere combo drop was what separated ROF from beating Tokido. Let’s also not forget that he fell short to Problem X’s M. Bison at Evo, or how he was put into Losers Bracket at Evo Japan to Japanese Cammy Powell.

It feels as though Tokido is always well prepared for the biggest threats — not only names, but characters — in tournament. But he sees himself struggle for players and characters that are less-expected in tournament scenarios. This could be detrimental coming into Capcom Cup because…

The Curse of the Top Seed

There is mathematically no way for Tokido to relinquish the top seed for Capcom Cup. With the Last Chance Qualifier, there is a high degree of likelihood Tokido will not be fully prepared for his very first opponent. There’s a realistic pool he could draw from to prepare for, but he would then focus far less on each and every person in the pool. With his inconsistency against unfamiliarity, this could be a problem — and every top seed at Capcom Cup since 2016 has faced this. In 2016, the top-seeded Infiltration lost his very first round against HumanBomb. In 2017, Punk lost to the LCQ winner Nemo. This could also be Tokido’s fate.

Let’s not ignore that extenuating factors could have caused the two upsets: Infiltration had been well off his game since winning Evo 2016, and the times he showed up at events saw him in a diminished capacity. Punk was on a confidence/results slide after losing at Evo 2017. Neither of these have happened to Tokido. He hasn’t stopped grinding since Evo, nor has he stopped winning. The random factor of the LCQ could affect him, but he’s less likely to have this happen than Punk or Infiltration, in my opinion.

Final Thoughts

The key match, however, will remain his first round match. He must do what others have failed to do in his seed: win. Should he do this, his stock rises through the rafters.

There are still some players that he has struggled with littered through the field, including Xiaohai, Problem X, and last year’s champion MenaRD. The difference factor will be if he prepared for Xiaohai, and whether he prepared for the less-familiar match-ups of Birdie and M. Bison this year. Should he do this, you’re looking at the Capcom Cup champion.